转：一个经济学学者眼中的足球比赛
2010年6月26日
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1. 足球幻觉之悲情英格兰
我喜欢足球，喜欢数据。用数据来看人类行为很好玩，因为它总和人们通常的想法不一样，足球运动只是其中之一。
足球比赛随机性很强，所以单场比赛的胜负很难预料，但综合起成千上万场的比赛数据，加以分析，就能告诉我们很多纯粹随机性之外的事情。而这些数据和事实，能戳破球迷，评论家，和媒体钟爱的一个又一个神话和幻觉。
本文内容取材于2009年出版的《足球经济学》（soccernomics）第二章“为什么英格兰总是输？”，作者是记者simon kuper 和英国的体育经济学家stefan szymanski.
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2. 你不知道的神秘点球
作者按：这是我写足球的第三篇文章，想显示数据分析能帮助人们理解这项运动。本届世界杯进入了淘汰赛阶段，点球大战不可避免。关于点球，经济学，和数字的故事有很多，这里我讲最刺激的那个。关于点球的经济分析，也就是博弈论中的混合策略纳什均衡，我这里略去。要指出的是，这理论的预测结果与现实的数据高度一致。
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～～～～～～
08年欧洲冠军杯决赛，切尔西对曼联的经典点球决战
哎。啥时候经济学家能干点子正经事啊。总感觉经济学家写的球评并不比球评家写的差，只是经济学家写的经济学著作也不比球评家写的好。都没有什么优势么，于是就只能靠在社会上的脸熟混日子。
@曾经客
^_^，中午好
经济学家写的球评我能看懂，他们写的经济著作我就看不明白啦
试着看过曼昆的《经济学原理》，看了一百多页就坚持不下去了
这本书就在我的手边。呵呵，经济学家的理论就好比用耳挖勺挖土方，听上去合理，却并不好使，所以没有人用。呵呵
对了，毕业以后你打算做什么呀？
@曾经客
毕业以后你打算做什么呀？
～～～～
下半夜有空会发封邮件的 ^_^
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